Yesterday, a prediction began to circulate that the price of bitcoin is heading towards $72,000 in early 2024.
It is a prediction posted on X by the youtuber Crypto Rover and is based on technical analysis.
Bitcoin price prediction for 2024
According to Crypto Rover, the BTC price curve from November 2020 to today would have formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern. So, according to the youtuber, if it continues to follow this pattern in early 2024, it should head towards $72,000.
In November 2020, when the last major bull run began, the price of Bitcoin was still below $15,000, and in a short time it climbed back to $20,000, which had been the all-time high.
After rising above $60,000 in April 2021, the price climbed to its current all-time high of $69,000 in early November 2021, and then began to draw its first shoulder at the end of the month when it fell below $50,000. The bounce in March 2022 would complete the formation of the first shoulder.
The head of this inverted pattern would obviously be the $15,500 of November 2022, while the second shoulder would be drawn in the last few weeks.
Indeed, after rising above $31,000 in July, the price of bitcoin fell below $25,000 in September, but the subsequent rebound that took it back above $27,000 would represent a change in trend for the crypto rover.
The hypothesis is therefore that if the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern continues, the price in the coming months will more or less return to the level at which this pattern began, i.e. $70,000.
The head and shoulders pattern is one of the most commonly used patterns in technical analysis.
However, it must be said that its predictive properties are far from certain. In fact, technical analysis is independent of fundamental analysis, and the bitcoin market tends to be very much influenced by the underlying dynamics that drive the entire global financial market.
Furthermore, the two inverted shoulders drawn by Crypto Rover are not perfectly aligned, as one would have been drawn around $40,000 and the other around $25,000.
On the other hand, if we take the start of the bull run in November 2020 as a reference, the November 2022 head at $15,500 does indeed seem to be in line.
It has to be said that the turnaround in 2023 is now clear and well defined, and many are expecting an uptrend in 2024.
In particular, April’s halving and the potential success of spot bitcoin ETFs could indeed lead to a rise in the price of BTC.
But it is a long way from here to say that it could reach new all-time highs in the early months of 2024.
There are three historical highs after a halving, all of which occurred between November and December of the year following the halving.
In the first two cases, they were reached either at the end of the year following the bear market year, i.e. the year of the next halving (November 2020), or even in the early months of the post-halving year in which a new bull run began (January 2017).
If a similar trend were to repeat itself, it may be necessary to wait until at least the end of 2024 before the price of bitcoin can return to its highs.
However, it must be said that during the bull run in 2021, many expected the price to reach $100,000, but due to certain events, this figure was missed.
It could be that this is the figure it will reach at the end of 2024, which would make $70,000 at the beginning of the year plausible.
However, there is no certainty that this will happen: there are only expectations and predictions, the accuracy of which has yet to be proven.
The difference with 2019: the new bitcoin price forecast
There is also an important difference with 2019.
2019 was the year following the second major bear market, that of 2018. In 2019, the benchmark price was around $9,000, or a little less than half of the previous all-time high.
In 2023, on the other hand, the price of bitcoin still never approached $35,000. It has always stayed below $32,000, and only briefly stayed above $31,000.
The reference price for 2023 is currently the $27,000 level around which it has been trading since March, i.e. much less than half of the all-time high of $69,000.
This suggests that the momentum for 2023 is not particularly strong, making it even harder to predict a return to the highs in early 2024.
Moreover, Crypto Rover’s inverted head-and-shoulders hypothesis seems a bit forced, as if it wanted to find this pattern at all costs, starting from the fact that the inverted head of November 2022 seems obvious.
In fact, not only are the two shoulders not at the same height, but the second is much closer in time to the head than the first. Moreover, the first seems to have lasted longer, taking four months to be drawn as opposed to two for the second.