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Forecasts at 100,000 USD for the price of Bitcoin

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After surpassing $60,000 USD, there are several predictions circulating regarding the evolution of the price of Bitcoin from now until the end of the year. 

Two hypotheses are under examination: reaching a new all-time high (ATH), and reaching the fateful level of 100,000 USD. 

The all-time high

For now, as the ATH of the Bitcoin price in US dollars is still holding at $69,000 in November 2021.

Three things need to be specified on this matter. 

The first is that the current 63,000 USD is not very far away: it would only take a +8% to reach them, and since it has only recorded a +7% in the last 24 hours, it seems that it may take very little. 

The second point is that actually perhaps the first reference point should be the $64,000 that were the all-time high in April 2021, and that were surpassed only seven months later. 

The third is that the conditions for a rise to 70,000 USD seem to be all there, not only in the short term, but especially in the medium term. 

It is important not to forget that the 2024 halving has not yet occurred, and it is precisely after the halving that theoretically the highest gains should come.

However, the current situation is absolutely anomalous, so at this moment it does not seem possible to take the past as a reference to predict future developments, but a +8% at this point seems really achievable. 

FOMO arrives on the markets

Indeed, in the market of Bitcoin there is clearly FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), and it is this that has pushed its price to record an incredible +21% in just the last seven days, bringing the gain to +45% in the last 30 days, and to +132% since mid-October.

That there is FOMO is now undeniable. Just think that yesterday Coinbase was literally stormed by investors and retail speculators, to the point of crashing.

The problem was completely resolved after a few hours, after causing a bit of panic among their users, but it shows how many people rushed all at once to the main US crypto exchange. 

Even more crazy is the trading volumes on the stock exchange of the new Bitcoin ETFs.

If Monday and Tuesday had already set new records, exceeding well over $2 billion in total daily volume, yesterday they jumped to $7.7 billion, including however also the Grayscale ETF and those already existing before January 11th.

The new record for #Bitcoin ETF trading volume is officially $7.69 billion. Previous record was $4.66 billion from launch day. https://t.co/rZsOSUqk35 pic.twitter.com/QaOKe2LuVU

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 28, 2024

It is still an absolute record that has literally destroyed the previous record of 4.6 billion on January 11th. 

Just yesterday, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded over 600 million dollars in inflows, more than the total sum of all ETFs on the previous day. 

[1/5] Bitcoin ETF Flow – 28th Feb 2024

All data in. Today was a record inflow day, with $673.4m of net inflow. This was driven by Blackrock, which also had a record day, with $612.1m of inflow pic.twitter.com/vklRVtrDoI

— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) February 29, 2024

The search volume for the word bitcoin on Google has also skyrocketed to five times more compared to Monday. 

The latest forecasts on the price of Bitcoin in USD

At this point, it should come as no surprise that many are still making optimistic predictions regarding the price of Bitcoin. 

Going beyond the short term, or pushing until the end of the year, according to analysts at Bitfinex, the price of BTC could potentially reach $100,000, or even $120,000, by the fourth quarter of 2024. 

They declared: 

“Our analysis includes a conservative price target of $100,000-120,000 to be reached by the fourth quarter of 2024, and the peak of the cycle to be reached in 2025 in terms of total cryptocurrency market capitalization. ETFs have introduced “passive demand”, meaning that demand comes from investors who are largely independent of price. They perceive Bitcoin as a store of value rather than a volatile tradable asset, as has been the case for several years before the introduction of ETFs.”

The fact that we now have ETFs potentially means that any subsequent decline after the peak of the current cycle could be less drastic than previous recessions. We have seen a similar stable trajectory in price after a huge increase following the launch of gold ETFs. However, from an investment perspective, it is advisable to evaluate the situation and various parameters of the futures and on-chain market once the end of the cycle is reached to have a more definitive view.

The new ETFs have probably even changed the basic structure of the Bitcoin market, namely the nature of investors. If before speculators predominated, now the role of long-term investors has become more important and significant. 

The rest is being done by the scarcity of BTC, which in fact are almost constantly decreasing on exchanges. 

 The ETFs have brought new medium/long-term investors into the BTC market, reducing the weight of speculation. 

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