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Bitcoin: quotation and forecasts molto positive

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Ieri sia la quotazione di Bitcoin che le previsioni sul suo prezzo sono diventate positive. 

In fact, the market value of BTC has returned above $70,000, something that hadn’t happened since before the halving on April 20. 

The leap of the quotation and the new forecasts on the price of Bitcoin

Yesterday morning the price of Bitcoin was around $67,000.

It was an absolutely consistent level with that of the previous two days, but during the day some decidedly promising positive signals appeared. 

In fact, at a certain point, it started to rise, reaching above $68,000.

This was already a level beyond which the price of Bitcoin had not returned since April 13, that is, since the pre-halving drop that anticipated the sell-the-news following the event.

A quel punto sembrava in effetti già chiaro che la lateralizzazione post-halving era in procinto di terminare, e nel corso della giornata le cose in effetti sono andate ancora meglio. 

The news about ETFs

Last night, a news was published that made the price of BTC jump further, and especially that of Ethereum.

The news is that, according to Bloomberg experts, the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs by the SEC would go from unlikely to likely.

Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they’d be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024

At that point, suddenly the price of ETH went from $3,150 to $3,440, and during the night it even pushed above $3,600. 

These are levels that Ethereum had not seen since April 9, even though they are almost 10% lower than the annual highs of 2024, and 25% lower than the all-time highs.

Questo rialzo si è immediatamente ripercosso sull’intero mercato crypto, anche su Bitcoin. 

And so the price of BTC first moved back above $70,000, and then also above $71,000.

Currently BTC is only 3% away from the all-time highs of March. 

The forecasts on the new Bitcoin quotation

With the publication of this news, the short-term forecasts have also changed. 

Initially, it was imagined that the price of BTC this week could interrupt the lateralization phase that began in mid-April, but not that it could immediately return to the highs. 

At this moment, however, short-term forecasts have become more optimistic, and it is not ruled out that by the end of the week it could manage to get back above $73,000. 

Tuttavia giovedì la SEC potrebbe anche bocciare le prime richieste di emissione di ETF su Ethereum spot, nonostante gli entusiasmi, e questo potrebbe spazzare via gran parte di questo ottimismo a breve termine. 

In fact, it is not yet entirely clear whether the behavior of the SEC really means that it will approve the Ethereum spot ETFs on Thursday. 

The medium term

Things, on the other hand, change in the medium term, because paradoxically there is less uncertainty. 

In the short term, uncertainty is high, precisely because of the indecipherable behavior of the SEC. 

Instead, in the medium term, the bullish trend seems to continue to prevail, after the pause that began shortly before the halving and ended yesterday. 

It should be noted, however, that in the event of a rejection of the ETFs, there could also be a new retracement, so the medium-term trend could experience a new temporary halt. 

The fact is that, at least until the U.S. elections on November 5, there will be sufficient liquidity in the financial markets to allow almost all risk-on assets to appreciate further. 

Tale trend potrebbe durare per l’appunto fino ai primi di novembre, e potrebbe essere suddiviso in due fasi, una fino a giugno o luglio, ed una seconda da settembre in poi. 

The lungo periodo

In the long term, however, uncertainty rises again. 

The key point is whether the bullrun of 2024, which should not have ended yet, will continue into 2025, or if next year there will be the classic bear-market post-bubble. 

Much will depend on U.S. monetary policies, also because after the elections on November 5 these could change. 

In particular, the financial policies of the USA government could change, which this year has contributed to the spread of optimism in the financial markets. 

It is by no means certain that such policies will continue, and indeed there may be a greater likelihood that with the elections they may come to an end. 

On the other hand, however, the Fed could start cutting rates, either in November or perhaps as early as September. This change in monetary policy, combined with the reduction of QT (Quantitative Tightening) that will begin in June, could instead increase liquidity in the markets, so everything will depend on which dynamic turns out to be prevalent. 

At this moment it is already difficult to try to imagine what could realistically happen in the short term, so as far as the long term is concerned, the uncertainty is still almost total. 

For now, the only thing that seems to be certain is that, currently, the medium-term trend continues to seem positive. 

It should not be forgotten, however, that unexpected events can always occur that can invalidate any forecast, therefore nothing is guaranteed. 

 Yesterday, the period of lateralizzazione that started more than a month ago came to an end. 

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